Illustrative Examples of the Variety of Market Sizing and Forecasting Purposes and Approaches (Nonexhaustive)
| Primary Purpose(s) | Inputs, Methods, Data Sources | Key Assumptions | Outputs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investments in research and development (e.g., funders estimating future market size to decide which product development investments to make) | Consumer research (e.g., simulated test market, discrete choice experiment) and research with other stakeholders, overlaid with data on demographic trends | All of the methods under consideration would be widely available in the future.Some assume no discontinuation, and others assume discontinuation rates for analogue products. | Point estimates of number of users by method in a number of countries far in the future (e.g., 20 years out), with 95% confidence intervals |
| Global market shaping over the near to medium term (e.g., suppliers and donors estimating procurement across priority countries to inform access pricing negotiations) | Bottom-up forecast using historical procurement data for other methods, applying results of market research or pilot introductions to predict uptake relative to these other methods | Procurement of the new method would scale up at comparable rates to findings from market research, pilots, or previous product introductions of other comparable methods.Future growth assumptions account for the timing and scope of product introduction. | Number of units of the product needed over a certain time period (e.g., 5 years) for conservative, moderate, and ambitious adoption scenarios |
| National introduction planning (e.g., ministry of health developing a costed implementation plan for method introduction) | Separate projections based on:• Service capacity• Consumption of similar product or method • National survey data on current use, unmet need, intention to use, etc. | May assume linear growth, providers would be willing to offer the method, clients with demand would access the method | Multiple linear projections to be reconciled using expert judgment |