Table 3. Sensitivity, Specificity, and Likelihood Ratios of Specified Reasons for Referral at Predicting a Fatal Outcome for the Referred Infant
Reason for ReferralaTimes CitedPrevalence % (95% CI)Sensitivity % (95% CI)Specificity % (95% CI)LR+LR-
Fever or felt hot8241.2 (34.3–48.4)15.0 (3.2–37.9)55.9 (48.3–63.3)0.31.5
Had cough8040.4 (33.5–47.6)25.0 (8.7–49.1)57.9 (50.3–65.2)0.61.3
Diarrhea157.6 (4.3–12.2)0.0 (0.0–16.1)91.6 (86.5–95.2)0.01.1
Refusing to feed2412.1 (7.9–17.4)45.0 (23.1–68.5)91.6 (86.6–95.2)5.40.6
Sleepy or difficult to arouse84.0 (1.8–7.8)20.0 (5.7–43.7)97.8 (94.3–99.4)9.10.8
Floppy or poor muscle tone189.1 (5.5–14.0)25.0 (8.7–49.1)92.7 (87.8–96.1)3.40.8
Not making urine2231.9 (21.2–44.2)57.1 (18.4–90.1)71.0 (58.1–81.8)2.00.6
Convulsions, fits, or seizures84.1 (1.8–7.8)15.0 (3.2–37.9)97.2 (93.5–99.1)5.40.9
Difficulty breathing5226.4 (20.4–33.1)65.0 (40.8–84.6)78 (71.1–83.8)3.00.4
Rapid breathing52.5 (0.8–5.8)10.0 (1.2–31.7)98.3 (95.1–99.6)5.90.9
Chest wall in-drawing10.5 (0.0–2.8)0.0 (0.0–16.1)99.4 (96.9–100.0)0.01.0
Skin pustules or red rash63.0 (1.1–6.5)0.0 (0.0–39.0)96.6 (92.8–98.7)0.01.0
Infected umbilicus31.5 (0.3–4.4)5.0 (0.1–24.9)98.9 (96–99.9)4.51.0
Bulging fontanel52.5 (0.8–5.8)10.0 (1.2–31.7)98.3 (95.1–99.6)5.90.9
TBA thought baby appeared ill16482.8 (76.8–87.8)95.0 (75.1–99.9)18.5 (13.1–25.0)1.20.3
Mother thought baby appeared ill16080.8 (74.6–86.0)80.0 (56.3–94.3)19.1 (13.6–25.7)1.01.0
Otherb62NANANANANA
No reason cited8NANANANANA
  • Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; LR+ and LR−, positive and negative likelihood ratios (clinically relevant LR+ and LR− values are in bold); NA, not applicable.

  • a TBAs were free to specify more than 1 reason for a given referral, so the total number of reasons for referral exceeds the number of neonates who were referred (208).

  • b Among the “other” reasons cited, those cited more than once included 12 citations for abdominal complaints (not making stool, swollen or tender belly, or diarrhea); 8 citations for inconsolable crying; 6 because the baby had been resuscitated at birth (all of which occurred during the first follow-up visit during week 1); 6 for skin rashes or sores; 4 for congenital defects or prematurity; 3 for respiratory complaints; and 3 for eye infections or discharge.