Model Estimates and Relative Losses for Each Study Indicator After Cyclone Idai, Manica and Sofala Provinces, Mozambique, 2019
| Indicator | Observed | Model Expected Without Cyclone Idai | Model Expected With Cyclone Idai | Relative Lossa | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Count (CI) | Count (CI) | (CI) | |||||||||
| March | April | May | March | April | May | March | April | May | March | April | May | |
| First ANC visit | 761 | 865 | 1,019 | 850 | 836 | 872 | 771 | 862 | 933 | 0.89 (0.72, 1.11) | 1.00 (0.80, 1.26) | 1.08 (0.95, 1.23) |
| (780, 927) | (764, 914) | (794, 958) | (602, 986) | (683, 1,086) | (826, 1,053) | |||||||
| IPTp4 | 391 | 411 | 422 | 423 (348, 513) | 437 (356, 536) | 440 (356, 544) | 397 (256, 617) | 415 (251, 685) | 415 (345, 500) | 0.88 (0.61, 1.31) | 0.88 (0.57, 1.38) | 0.94 (0.79, 1.11) |
| Institutional delivery | 567 | 621 | 645 | 645 (598, 694) | 689 (637, 744) | 669 (617, 725) | 569 (485, 666) | 623 (536, 723) | 657 (611, 706) | 0.88 (0.75, 1.02) | 0.90 (0.77, 1.05) | 0.98 (0.90, 1.07) |
| New FP user | 1,676 | 1,627 | 4,526 | 1921 | 1,879 | 2,520 | 1,694 | 1,615 | 2,808 | 0.86 (0.56, 1.34) | 0.85 (0.56, 1.29) | 1.12 (0.86, 1.45) |
| (1,423, 2,594) | (1,375, 2,566) | (1,818, 3,493) | (1,000, 2,870) | (1,014, 2,575) | (2,092, 3,768) | |||||||
| Measles vaccination | 565 | 532 | 722 | 650 (569, 743) | 606 (529, 695) | 640 (556, 736) | 566 (424, 756) | 536 (350, 821) | 701 (605, 813) | 0.87 (0.67, 1.14) | 0.87 (0.61, 1.29) | 1.10 (0.97, 1.25) |
| BCG vaccination | 591 | 646 | 775 | 659 (592, 733) | 695 (623, 776) | 706 (631, 789) | 591 (457, 764) | 655 (447, 960) | 772 (690, 863) | 0.90 (0.71, 1.14) | 0.92 (0.67, 1.29) | 1.10 (1.00, 1.21) |
| DPT-Hib3 vaccination | 578 | 526 | 668 | 631 (567, 703) | 602 (539, 673) | 618 (551, 693) | 579 (445, 754) | 531 (368, 767) | 654 (581, 736) | 0.92 (0.72, 1.18) | 0.87 (0.64, 1.23) | 1.06 (0.96, 1.18) |
| Fully immunized children under age 1 year | 532 | 503 | 634 | 615 (534, 709) | 570 (493, 659) | 575 (496, 666) | 533 (395, 718) | 508 (340, 759) | 618 (537, 712) | 0.86 (0.66, 1.12) | 0.88 (0.63, 1.27) | 1.07 (0.96, 1.20) |
| First at-risk children’s consultation | 92 | 101 | 129 | 105 (81, 137) | 108 (82, 143) | 105 (78, 142) | 96 (65, 142) | 103 (54, 198) | 130 (101, 168) | 0.95 (0.72, 1.27) | 0.97 (0.60, 1.65) | 1.29 (1.04, 1.59) |
| Postpartum visit within 3–7 days | 42 | 53 | 57 | 48 (22, 102) | 53 (24, 117) | 44 (19, 102) | 44 (11, 174) | 48 (13, 182) | 60 (28, 130) | 0.86 (0.40, 1.88) | 0.84 (0.43, 1.64) | 1.40 (0.95, 2.06) |
Abbreviations: ANC, antenatal care; BCG, bacillus Calmette-Guerin; CI, confidence interval; DPT-Hib3, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and Haemophilus influenzae type b; FP, family planning; IPTp4, at least 4 doses of intermittent preventive treatment prophylaxis.
↵a Relative loss is computed at the district level by dividing the Model Expected With Cyclone Idai scenario by the Model Expected Without Cyclone Idai scenario. Averages of these ratios are then computed for overall relative loss. The confidence intervals are computed from Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) posterior realizations.