RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Estimating Contraceptive Prevalence Using Logistics Data for Short-Acting Methods: Analysis Across 30 Countries JF Global Health: Science and Practice JO GLOB HEALTH SCI PRACT FD Johns Hopkins University- Global Health. Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Communication Programs SP 462 OP 481 DO 10.9745/GHSP-D-15-00116 VO 3 IS 3 A1 Marc Cunningham A1 Ariella Bock A1 Niquelle Brown A1 Suzy Sacher A1 Benjamin Hatch A1 Andrew Inglis A1 Dana Aronovich YR 2015 UL http://www.ghspjournal.org/content/3/3/462.abstract AB Three models showed strong correlation between public-sector logistics data for injectables, oral contraceptives, and condoms and their prevalence rates, demonstrating that current logistics data can provide useful prevalence estimates when timely survey data are unavailable.Background: Contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) is a vital indicator used by country governments, international donors, and other stakeholders for measuring progress in family planning programs against country targets and global initiatives as well as for estimating health outcomes. Because of the need for more frequent CPR estimates than population-based surveys currently provide, alternative approaches for estimating CPRs are being explored, including using contraceptive logistics data.Methods: Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 30 countries, population data from the United States Census Bureau International Database, and logistics data from the Procurement Planning and Monitoring Report (PPMR) and the Pipeline Monitoring and Procurement Planning System (PipeLine), we developed and evaluated 3 models to generate country-level, public-sector contraceptive prevalence estimates for injectable contraceptives, oral contraceptives, and male condoms. Models included: direct estimation through existing couple-years of protection (CYP) conversion factors, bivariate linear regression, and multivariate linear regression. Model evaluation consisted of comparing the referent DHS prevalence rates for each short-acting method with the model-generated prevalence rate using multiple metrics, including mean absolute error and proportion of countries where the modeled prevalence rate for each method was within 1, 2, or 5 percentage points of the DHS referent value.Results: For the methods studied, family planning use estimates from public-sector logistics data were correlated with those from the DHS, validating the quality and accuracy of current public-sector logistics data. Logistics data for oral and injectable contraceptives were significantly associated (P<.05) with the referent DHS values for both bivariate and multivariate models. For condoms, however, that association was only significant for the bivariate model. With the exception of the CYP-based model for condoms, models were able to estimate public-sector prevalence rates for each short-acting method to within 2 percentage points in at least 85% of countries.Conclusions: Public-sector contraceptive logistics data are strongly correlated with public-sector prevalence rates for short-acting methods, demonstrating the quality of current logistics data and their ability to provide relatively accurate prevalence estimates. The models provide a starting point for generating interim estimates of contraceptive use when timely survey data are unavailable. All models except the condoms CYP model performed well; the regression models were most accurate but the CYP model offers the simplest calculation method. Future work extending the research to other modern methods, relating subnational logistics data with prevalence rates, and tracking that relationship over time is needed.