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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Open Access

Patterns and Drivers of Packaged (Fortified) Maize Flour Purchase in Urban and Peri-Urban Kenya

Semeni Ngozi, Ayala Wineman, Mywish K. Maredia, David Tschirley, Ian Fisher and Nahian Bin Khaled
Global Health: Science and Practice April 2026, https://doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-24-00240
Semeni Ngozi
aDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Business, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
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  • For correspondence: semeni.ngozi{at}gmail.com
Ayala Wineman
bDepartment of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
cGlobal Child Nutrition Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Mywish K. Maredia
bDepartment of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
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David Tschirley
bDepartment of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
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Ian Fisher
bDepartment of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
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Nahian Bin Khaled
bDepartment of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
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    TABLE 1.

    Summary of Key Household Variables

    VariableDescriptionVariable Type
    Purchase of maize flour
    Purchased packaged (fortified) maize flour1= Household purchased maize flour in packaged and sealed formDummy
    Price paidAverage price paid for maize flour (KES/gram)Continuous
    Distance traveledAverage distance traveled to purchase maize flour (km)Continuous
    Main shopper characteristics
    Age of main shopperAge of the main shopper in the household (years)Continuous
    Secondary school education1=Main shopper has at least some secondary school educationDummy
    Female1=Main shopper is femaleDummy
    Notice signs1=Main shopper notices signs that encourage healthy purchases when shoppingDummy
    Notice nutrition information1=Main shopper notices nutrition information or nutrition labels on packaged foodsDummy
    Notice fortified status1=Main shopper notices the fortification status of food products before purchaseDummy
    Fortified status: Most importanta1=Main shopper reports that fortification is among the most important food attributesDummy
    Fortified status: Least importanta1=Main shopper reports that fortification is among the least important food attributesDummy
    Household characteristics
    Female-headed household1=Household head is femaleDummy
    No. adultsNumber of adults in the householdContinuous
    No. childrenNumber of children in the householdContinuous
    Poverty likelihoodbLikelihood (%) that a household is below US$3.20/day international poverty levelContinuous
    More poor1=Household is above the median poverty likelihood valueDummy
    Less poor1=Household is below the median poverty likelihood valueDummy
    Farm household1=Household is involved in farmingDummy
    Food environment characteristics
    Packaged (fortified) maize flour in food environment1= Home food environment has at least one outlet selling packaged (fortified) maize flourDummy
    No. outlets selling packaged (fortified) maize flourNumber of outlets in the home food environment that offer packaged (fortified) maize flourContinuous
    Density of outlets selling packaged (fortified) maize flour in home food environmentNumber of outlets per km2 that offer packaged (fortified) maize flour in the home food environment
    Price of packaged (fortified) maize flourMedian purchase price of packaged (fortified) maize flour in the enumeration area (KES/kg)Continuous
    Price premium for packaged (fortified) maize flourGap between median price of packaged and unpackaged maize flour in the enumeration area (KES/kg)Continuous
    Geographic characteristics
    Nairobi urban1= Household resides in urban NairobiDummy
    Nairobi peri-urban1= Household resides in peri-urban NairobiDummy
    Kisumu urban1= Household resides in urban KisumuDummy
    Kisumu peri-urban1= Household resides in peri-urban KisumuDummy
    • a Respondents were presented with a list of 18 food attributes and asked to select their 4 most important and 4 least important attributes.

    • b This measure of each household’s likelihood of poverty is based on scores given to 10 indicators, including household size, number of habitable rooms and wall material of the dwelling unit, ownership of a television or mobile phone, whether the household contains any member with a disability, and the nature of household members’ work, literacy, and education. The resulting score is converted into probabilities of falling below the US$3.20/day poverty line.31 These probabilities are then used to categorize households as having a low or high likelihood of poverty, based on whether they are below or above the median poverty likelihood score.

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    TABLE 2.

    Household Purchase of Packaged Maize Flour, Urban and Peri-Urban Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya, 2022 (N=1,507)

    Study-RegionPoverty Status
    AllNairobi UrbanNairobi Peri-UrbanKisumu UrbanKisumu Peri-UrbanMore PoorLess Poor
    Household purchased maize flour (%)80818070668377
    Household purchased packaged (fortified) maize flour (%)67687050346667
    Household purchased packaged (fortified) maize flour, if any maize flour was purchased (%)84848772518087
    Number of times packaged (fortified) maize flour was purchased in a month, if any (mean)4.34.24.35.34.75.03.7
    No. of households1,507375357383392817690
    • View popup
    TABLE 3.

    Availability of Packaged Maize Flour in the Home Food Environment, Urban and Peri-Urban Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya, 2022 (N=1,507)

    Study-RegionPoverty Status
    AllNairobi UrbanNairobi Peri-UrbanKisumu UrbanKisumu Peri-UrbanMore PoorLess Poor
    % of households whose home food environment contains any selling points for packaged (fortified) maize flour10010010010092100100
    Average number of outlets in the households’ home food environment that sell packaged (fortified) maize flour42542917124241
    Average number of outlets per km2 in home food environment that sell packaged (fortified) maize flour821075833108481
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    TABLE 4.

    Prices Paid for Packaged and Unpackaged Maize Flour (mean KES/gram), Urban and Peri-Urban Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya, 2022 (N=1,507)

    Study-RegionPoverty Status
    Type of Maize FlourAllNairobi UrbanNairobi Peri-UrbanKisumu UrbanKisumu Peri-UrbanMore PoorLess Poor
    Packaged (fortified)71716879836972
    Unpackaged (unfortified)72746868647074
    • Note: To produce these values, the quantities purchased and expenditures made for maize flour over the previous month were first summed within each household to generate a within-household average, and the average was then calculated across households.

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    TABLE 5.

    Outlets Where Households Purchase Maize Flour, by Type of Maize Flour, Urban and Peri-Urban Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya, 2022 (N=1,194)

    % of Households
    Outlet

    Unpackaged (Unfortified)

    (N=374)

    Packaged (Fortified)

    (N=820)

    Duka3666
    Large supermarket421
    Small supermarket18
    Posho mill421
    Wholesale24
    Kiosk43
    Market111
    Other41
    • Note: Each value indicates the percent of households (among those that purchase a given type of maize flour) that procure the product from a given outlet. Because households typically frequent multiple types of outlets, these values sum to more than 100%.

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    TABLE 6.

    Mean Distances Traveled for Maize Flour Purchases (km), Urban and Peri-Urban Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya, 2022

    Study-RegionPoverty Status
    Type of Maize FlourAllNairobi UrbanNairobi Peri-UrbanKisumu UrbanKisumu Peri-UrbanMore PoorLess Poor
    Packaged (fortified)0.50.50.60.71.20.40.8
    Unpackaged (unfortified)0.40.20.60.51.00.40.3
    • Note: To produce these values, we first calculated the within-household average distance traveled to purchase each product across the different purchases made in the previous month and then calculated an average across households.

    • View popup
    TABLE 7.

    Characteristics of Households, by Purchasing of Packaged Maize Flour, Urban and Peri-Urban Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya, 2022

    Did Household Purchase Packaged (Fortified) Maize Flour?
     AllNoYes
     Mean (SD)Mean (SD)Mean (SD)P Valueb
    Main shopper characteristicsa
    Age (years)35.83 (12.11)37.36 (12.64)35.06 (11.77).02
    Secondary school education0.64 (0.48)0.61 (0.49)0.65 (0.48).33
    Female0.68 (0.47)0.63 (0.48)0.71 (0.45).03
    Notice signs0.56 (0.50)0.58 (0.49)0.55 (0.50).45
    Notice nutrition information0.46 (0.50)0.49 (0.50)0.44 (0.50).29
    Notice fortification status0.32 (0.47)0.37 (0.48)0.30 (0.46).08
    Fortified status: Most important0.06 (0.24)0.06 (0.23)0.06 (0.24).77
    Fortified status: Least important0.28 (0.45)0.30 (0.46)0.27 (0.45).43
    Household characteristics
    Female-headed household0.29 (0.46)0.30 (0.46)0.29 (0.45).68
    No. adults1.98 (0.96)2.00 (1.06)1.97 (0.90).79
    No. children1.43 (1.43)1.39 (1.45)1.46 (1.42).59
    Poverty likelihood (%)34.07 (26.25)34.15 (26.30)34.04 (26.24).96
    Farm household0.16 (0.37)0.19 (0.39)0.14 (0.35).12
    Food environment characteristics
    Density of outlets selling packaged (fortified) maize flour in home food environment (number/km2)82.25 (53.74)74.83 (56.61)85.97 (51.87).006
    Price of packaged (fortified) maize flour (KES/kg)68.92 (5.41)69.97 (7.38)68.39 (3.97)<.001
    Price premium for packaged (fortified) maize flour (KES/kg)1.64 (5.92)2.20 (7.54)1.35 (4.89).07
    Geography
    Nairobi urban0.55 (0.50)0.53 (0.50)0.57 (0.50).34
    Nairobi peri-urban0.36 (0.48)0.33 (0.47)0.38 (0.49).21
    Kisumu urban0.05 (0.22)0.07 (0.26)0.04 (0.19)<.001
    Kisumu peri-urban0.03 (0.18)0.07 (0.25)0.02 (0.13)<.001
    No. of households1,507687820
    • a In households with more than one shopper, the age, education, gender, indicators of awareness, and food values of the main shopper refer to the shopper who responded to the survey on behalf of the household.

    • ↵b P values are for a t-test for the difference in mean values. Significant P values are in boldface (P<.01, P<.05, and P<.10).

    • View popup
    TABLE 8.

    Correlates of the Purchase of Packaged Maize Flour (Probit Models), Urban and Peri-Urban Nairobi and Kisumu, Kenya, 2022 (N=1,507)

    AllNairobiKisumu
    (1) Unconditional(2) Conditional(3) Unconditional(4) Conditional(5) Unconditional(6) Conditional
    Age of main shopper (years)−0.003−0.001−0.003−0.001−0.003−0.003
     P value.03.18.04.25.04.01
    Secondary school education0.0200.0390.0210.0400.0540.017
     P value.64.18.65.21.23.58
    Female0.1300.0200.1400.018−0.0290.012
     P value.02.52.01.60.54.68
    Notice signs−0.0230.044−0.0250.044−0.0090.047
     P value.61.08.62.11.80.04
    Notice nutrition information−0.015−0.033−0.013−0.037−0.002−0.015
     P value.71.18.77.16.97.66
    Notice fortification status−0.091−0.021−0.095−0.021−0.021−0.023
     P value.03.34.03.39.72.42
    Fortified status: Most important0.043−0.0420.048−0.044−0.0350.119
     P value.61.44.62.43.59.06
    Fortified status: Least important−0.035−0.050−0.041−0.0540.0080.012
     P value.31.06.27.05.86.70
    Female-headed household−0.052−0.022−0.051−0.021−0.0140.027
     P value.33.44.37.48.82.23
    No. adults−0.012−0.004−0.016−0.0050.0170.010
     P value.66.80.60.74.44.60
    No. children−0.006−0.007−0.009−0.0100.0150.011
     P value.64.53.54.46.23.16
    Poverty likelihood (proportion)0.0290.0060.0230.0190.074−0.018
     P value.76.91.83.78.40.81
    Farm household0.003−0.0010.0220.006−0.128−0.037
     P value.94.95.61.82.001.16
    Density of outlets selling fortified maize flour (10s/km2)0.0040.0030.0030.0040.008−0.004
     P value.59.28.68.27.56.47
    Price of fortified maize flour in EA (KES/kg)−0.0040.001−0.0030.001−0.0010.010
     P value.65.85.80.92.81.01
    Price premium for fortified maize flour (KES/kg)−0.003−0.008−0.001−0.009−0.009−0.006
     P value.64.08.91.09.05.02
    Purchased maize flour in duka0.2440.2260.423
     P value<.001.002<.001
    Purchased maize flour in posho mill−0.150−0.156−0.121
     P value.02.03.03
    Purchased maize flour in market−0.051−0.0790.120
     P value.49.34.12
    Purchased maize flour in large supermarket0.3270.3060.521
     P value<.001<.001<.001
    Purchased maize flour in small supermarket0.2850.2580.609
     P value<.001<.001<.001
    Purchased maize flour in other type of outlet0.1470.1290.303
     P value.007.04<.001
    Nairobi peri-urban0.0300.0620.0240.061
     P value.60.09.71.11
    Kisumu peri-urban−0.2390.047−0.079−0.015
     P value.005.24.23.65
    Kisumu urban−0.0870.036
     P value.32.38
    No. of households1,5071,125732578775547
    Wald χ2138.2772.349.51432.5225.22019.1
    P > χ2<.001<.001<.001<.001<.001<.001
    Pseudo-Embedded Image0.050.400.030.380.080.55
    • Average marginal effects; standard errors clustered at enumeration area; significant P values are in boldface (P<.01, P<.05, and P<.10).

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Patterns and Drivers of Packaged (Fortified) Maize Flour Purchase in Urban and Peri-Urban Kenya
Semeni Ngozi, Ayala Wineman, Mywish K. Maredia, David Tschirley, Ian Fisher, Nahian Bin Khaled
Global Health: Science and Practice Apr 2026, DOI: 10.9745/GHSP-D-24-00240

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Patterns and Drivers of Packaged (Fortified) Maize Flour Purchase in Urban and Peri-Urban Kenya
Semeni Ngozi, Ayala Wineman, Mywish K. Maredia, David Tschirley, Ian Fisher, Nahian Bin Khaled
Global Health: Science and Practice Apr 2026, DOI: 10.9745/GHSP-D-24-00240
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