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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Open Access

A Rapid Cost Modeling Tool for Evaluating and Improving Public Health Supply Chain Designs

Michael Krautmann, Mariam Zameer, Dorothy Thomas, Nora Phillips-White, Ana Costache and Pascale R. Leroueil
Global Health: Science and Practice December 2020, 8(4):759-770; https://doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-20-00227
Michael Krautmann
aWilliam Davidson Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
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  • For correspondence: mpkrautm@umich.edu
Mariam Zameer
b VillageReach, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Dorothy Thomas
b VillageReach, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Nora Phillips-White
b VillageReach, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Ana Costache
b VillageReach, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Pascale R. Leroueil
aWilliam Davidson Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
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  • FIGURE 1.
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    FIGURE 1.

    Comparison of Cost Estimates Between the Rapid Supply Chain Modeling Tool and Existing Reference Supply Chain Analyses

    Abbreviation: MAPE, mean absolute percent error.

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    FIGURE 2.

    United Nation’s Children’s Fund System Design Approach Used to Review Angola’s Expanded Program on Immunization Supply Chain

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    FIGURE 3.

    Change in Total Annual Operating Cost Estimates by Design Scenario for Angola’s Immunization Supply Chain, With Costs Shown as a Percentage of “Ideal Baseline” Costs

Tables

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    TABLE 1.

    Key Modeling Tool Design Decisions for Facilitating Rapid Supply Chain Analyses

    Simplifying modeling assumptions: Reducing data requirements and enable real-time calculationAssumptions:
    • All facilities at a given tier have the same demand quantity per order period

    • Demand is the same for every order period and does not vary over time

    • Facilities within a tier are evenly distributed throughout a given region and, thus, are the same average distance to their nearest re-supply point

    Standardizing design levers: Providing flexibility to model diverse global health distribution strategies
    • Storage: At which levels do you hold and manage inventory? How much safety stock does each level hold, and how frequently is it replenished?

    • Transportation: What types of vehicles are used to transport replenishment shipments? What type of distribution model is followed at each level (e.g., hub and spoke or multi-stop distribution loops), and are there any travel constraints (e.g., administrative boundaries)?

    • Management: Who is responsible for performing key ordering, transport, and storage functions? What types of technology supports people at each level?

    Proxying data and worksheets to fill gaps: Enabling quick estimation of missing data pointsSupporting worksheets and datasets:
    • A model for estimating immunization and/or reproductive health demand volumes and product value, by combining available demand planning methodologies with publicly available demographic and product data

    • A general model for converting the number of units of a health product into a cubic-meter volume using historical product unit volume data

    • Common commercial heuristics for estimating storage capacity of a warehouse based on its overall dimensions

    • A database of typical costs for assets like vehicles, warehousing space, and cold chain equipment

    Using Excel-based platform for broad accessibility
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    TABLE 2.

    Reference Datasets From Cost and Modeling Analyses Used to Validate the Rapid Supply Chain Modeling Tool

    Study LocationDescription
    Bolivia and Guatemala, 2018Three supply chain costing studies led by ForoLAC (Foro Latinoamericano y del Caribe para el Aseguramiento de Insumos de Salud Reproductiva) that included all major health commodities, including vaccines:
    • Tarija Department, Bolivia

    • Quiché Department, Guatemala

    • Alta Verapaz Department, Guatemala

    Mozambique, 2015Modeling analysis conducted by VillageReach for the national and provincial ministries of health, using the HERMES software platform (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Event-Driven Supply Chains) to assess 2 immunization supply chain design options for Manica Province in Mozambique (the baseline 4-tier design, and a direct delivery design that skipped 1 of the tiers).
    Senegal, 2017Modeling analysis in Senegal estimating the nationwide costs of operating the Informed Push Model strategy for delivering family planning and maternal-child health products.
    Zimbabwe, 2015Evaluation of the Zimbabwe Assisted Pull System strategy in Manicaland Province in Zimbabwe, which integrated commodity distribution for most health program areas (except vaccines).
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Global Health: Science and Practice: 8 (4)
Global Health: Science and Practice
Vol. 8, No. 4
December 23, 2020
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A Rapid Cost Modeling Tool for Evaluating and Improving Public Health Supply Chain Designs
Michael Krautmann, Mariam Zameer, Dorothy Thomas, Nora Phillips-White, Ana Costache, Pascale R. Leroueil
Global Health: Science and Practice Dec 2020, 8 (4) 759-770; DOI: 10.9745/GHSP-D-20-00227

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A Rapid Cost Modeling Tool for Evaluating and Improving Public Health Supply Chain Designs
Michael Krautmann, Mariam Zameer, Dorothy Thomas, Nora Phillips-White, Ana Costache, Pascale R. Leroueil
Global Health: Science and Practice Dec 2020, 8 (4) 759-770; DOI: 10.9745/GHSP-D-20-00227
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  • Article
    • ABSTRACT
    • BACKGROUND
    • METHODOLOGY: DESIGNING A TOOL FOR RAPID ANALYSIS USE CASES
    • VALIDATING THE RSCM TOOL’S METHODOLOGY
    • TESTING THE TOOL IN AN IMMUNIZATION SUPPLY CHAIN CONTEXT
    • DISCUSSION
    • CONCLUSION
    • Acknowledgments
    • Notes
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