Figures & Tables
Tables
Archetype Disease Vaccine Exists? African Doses Volume by 2040, million Disability-Adjusted Life Years 2040, million Legacy: diseases with high coverage vaccines, primarily produced by Indian players at high volumes with low unit prices. Hepatitis B, diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough Yes ∼370 6 TB Yes ∼140 12 Measles Yes ∼240 2 Yellow fever Yes ∼50 <1 Cholera Yes ∼30 1 Typhoid Yes ∼20 1 Meningococcusa Yes ∼60 5 Expanding: diseases that do not yet have commoditized vaccines, where vaccines are sold at relatively higher prices with some products still in development and not yet licensed. Human papillomavirus Yes ∼30 4 Pneumococcus Yes ∼140 13 Rotavirus Yes ∼120 9 COVID-19 Yes ∼710 TBD Malaria Yes ∼120 20 HIV No ∼110 10 Outbreak: diseases that are characterized by having emerging vaccines with unpredictable demand driven by outbreaks, often with higher prices due to lower scale and urgent need. Ebola Yes ∼1 9 Influenzab Yes ∼10 1 Chikungunya No ∼1 <1 Rift Valley fever No ∼1 <1 Lassa fever No ∼1 <1 Disease Xc No N/A N/A Total 2,200 Abbreviations: Africa CDC, Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention; N/A, not applicable; TBD, to be determined.
↵a Including key meningococcus serogroups found in Africa (A, C, W, and X).
↵b In this context, outbreak influenza.
↵c Disease X refers to a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could emerge and result in an epidemic.







