Maternal and Child Health Care Service Disruptions and Recovery in Mozambique After Cyclone Idai: An Uncontrolled Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Abbreviations: ANC, antenatal care visit; BCG, bacillus Calmette-Guerin; CV, coefficient of variation (ratio of standard deviation to the average); DPT-Hib3, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and Haemophilus influenzae type b immunization; FP, family planning; IPTp4, at least 4 doses of intermittent preventive treatment prophylaxis.

↵a Means and CV for the districts in the province.

↵b The averages and the CV are computed per district for the months of 2017.

Abbreviations: ANC, antenatal care; BCG, bacillus Calmette-Guerin; DPT-Hib3, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and Haemophilus influenzae type b; FP, family planning; IPTp4, at least 4 doses of intermittent preventive treatment prophylaxis.

↵a Intercept (e^β0) is a model estimate of the count of service deliveries per 100,000 people in November 2016 (e.g., for “first ANC visit,” there were an estimated 934 first ANC visits per 100,000 women of reproductive age in November 2016).

↵b Post (e^βpost) is the multiplicative change of the intercept since Cyclone Idai (e.g., compared to November 2016, there was an 8% increase in first ANC visits among women of reproductive health age in the post-Idai period [after March 2019]).

↵c Pre-slope (e^βpre) is the monthly multiplicative increase in the ratio of indicator count to 100,000 people before Cyclone Idai (e.g., there was a 0.2% relative decrease in first ANC visits in women of reproductive health age per month).

↵d Post-slope (e^βpostslope) change is the multiplicative change in the pre-slope coefficient (e.g., after Cyclone Idai, the monthly trend in first ANC visits was unchanged).

↵e March 2019 is the specific change relative to the post-level (e^βMarch2019) change. This is a multiplicative deviation from the overall post-Idai level in March 2019 (e.g., during the month when Cyclone Idai occurred, the ratio of first ANC visits to the population of women of reproductive health age was 23% lower than during the entire post-Idai period).

↵f April 2019 is the specific change relative to the post-level (e^βApril2019) change. This is a multiplicative deviation from the overall post-Idai level in April 2019 (e.g., during the month following Cyclone Idai, the ratio of first ANC visits to the population of women of reproductive health age was 11% lower relative to the entire post-Idai period).