Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?

  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Although integrated assessment models (IAM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consider population as one of the root causes of greenhouse gas emissions, how population dynamics affect climate change is still under debate. Population is rarely mentioned in policy debates on climate change. Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the mechanisms and complexity of population and climate interactions. In addition to the growth of total population size, research shows that changes in population composition (i.e. age, urban–rural residence, and household structure) generate substantial effects on the climate system. Moreover, studies by the impact, vulnerability and adaptation (IAV) community also reveal that population dynamics are critical in the near term for building climate change resilience and within adaptation strategies. This paper explores how global population dynamics affect carbon emissions and climate systems, how recent demographic trends matter to worldwide efforts to adapt to climate change, and how population policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. While it improves energy efficiency, rapid technological change under the A1 Scenario encourages higher energy consumption, along with rapid economic growth. As a result, carbon emissions in A1 are the highest among the four scenarios for much of the twenty first century, and will not change until further, substantial technological advancement late in the century drives emissions downward.

  2. B1 includes the least fossil fuel combustion, a high proportion of renewable energy use, and the most rapid improvement in land use changes.

  3. Million tons of oil equivalent.

  4. Gigaton of carbon.

  5. Data used in this analysis is ‘Global Multihazard Frequency and Distribution’ developed by Columbia University Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, and Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). It is a 2.5 by 2.5 min grid presenting a simple multihazard index solely on summated single-hazard decile values. This dataset also includes variables of population, gross domestic product (GDP) and transportation infrastructure.

  6. Family planning programs were responsible for at least 40% of the fertility decline in developing countries from the 1960s through the end of 1980s (Vlassoff 2004).

  7. A less significant factor contributing to higher population growth than that previously projected in sub-Saharan Africa is because of the downward revision of HIV/AIDs prevalence in many African countries, thanks to the aggressive global actions against HIV/AIDs in the past decade.

References

  • Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2005). Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature, 438, 303–309.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindoff, N. L., Willegrand, J., Artale, V., Cazenave, A., Gregory, S., Hanawa, K., Le Quere, C., Levitus, S., Nojiri, Y., Shum, C. K., Talley, L. D., & Unnikrishnan, A. (2007). Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, & H. L. Miller (Eds.), Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  • Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2008). The demographic dividend. A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Studies in Family Planning, 39(2), 105–110.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell-Lendrum, D., Kovats, S., McMichael, A. J., Corvalan, C. F., Menne, B., & Pruss-Ustun, A. (2005). The global burden of disease due to climate change: Quantifying the benefits of stabilization for human health. Paper presented at conference Avoiding dangerous climate change, Met Office, Exter, UK, 1–3 Feb 2005.

  • Campell, K. M., Gulledge, J., McNeill, J.R., Podesta, J., Ogden, P., Fuerth, L., Woosley, R. J., Lennon, A. T. J., Smith, J., Weitz, R., & Mix, D. (2007). The age of consequences: The foreign policy and national security implications of global climate change. Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Center for New American Security.

  • Clark, W. A. V., & Deurloo, M. C. (2006). Aging in place and housing over-consumption. Journal of Housing Built Environment, 21, 257–270.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cleland, J., & Bernstein, S. (2006). Family planning: The unfinished agenda. The Lancet, 368(9549), 1810–1827.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cole, M. A., & Neumayer, E. (2004). Examining the impacts of demographic factors on air pollution. Population and Environment, 26, 5–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cramer, J. (1997). A demographic perspective on air quality: A conceptual issues surrounding environmental impacts of population growth. Human Ecology Review, 3, 191–196.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cramer, J. C. (1998). Population growth and air quality in California. Demography, 35, 45–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dalton, M., Jiang, L., Shonali, P., & O’Neill, B. C. (2007). Demographic change and future carbon emissions in China and India. New York: Population Association of America.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dalton, M., O’Neill, B. C., Prskawetz, A., Jiang, L., & Pitkin, J. (2008). Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States. Energy Economics, 30, 642–675.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Sherbinin, A., Carr, D., Cassels, S., & Jiang, L. (2007). Population and environment. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32, 345–373.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietz, T., & Rosa, E. (1994). Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review, 1, 277–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dietz, T., & Rosa, E. A. (1997). Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA, 94, 175–179.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietz, T., Rosa, E. A., & York, R. (2007). Driving the human ecological footprint. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 5, 13–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dorius, S. F. (2008). Global demographic convergence? A reconsideration of changing intercountry inequality in fertility. Population and Development Review, 34, 519–537.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ehrlich, P., & Holdren, J. (1971). Impact of population growth. Science, 171, 1212–1217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 435, 686–688.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel, K. (2008). Hurricanes and global warming: Results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89, 347–367.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan, Y., Liu, L.-C., Wu, G., & Wei, Y.-M. (2006). Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 26, 377–395.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., Russell, G., Lea, D. W., & Siddall, M. (2007). Climate change and trace gases. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365, 1925–1954.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A., & Varney, S. K. (Eds.). (1992). Climate change 1992: The IPCC supplementary report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoyos, C. D., Agudelo, P. A., Webster, P. J., & Curry, A. J. (2006). Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity. Science, 312, 94–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. (2007). Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  • Jiang, L. (1999). Population and sustainable development in China. Amsterdam: Thela Thesis.

  • Jiang, L., Hoepf, M., & Hardee, K. (2008). Population, urbanization and the environment. World Watch, 21, 34–39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, L., & O’Neill, B. C. (2004). The energy transition in rural China. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 21, 2–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, L., & O’Neill, B. C. (2007). Impacts of demographic trend on US household size and structure. Population and Development Review, 33, 429–656.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, D. W. (1989). Urbanization and energy use in economic development. The Energy Journal, 10, 29–44.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones, D. W. (2004). Urbanization and energy. Encyclopedia of Energy, 6, 329–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaya, Y. (1990). Impacts of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth: Interpretation of proposed scenarios. Paper presented to the IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup, response Strategies Working Group, Paris.

  • Keatinge, W. R., Donaldson, G. C., Cordioli, E., Martinelli, M., Kunst, A. E., Mackenbach, J. P., et al. (2000). Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: Observational study. British Medical Journal, 321, 670–673.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kent, M. M., & Haub, C. (2005). Global demographic divide. Population bulletin. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Knutson, T. R. (2008). Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience, 3, 359–364.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knutson, T. R., & Robert Tuleya, E. (2004). Impacts of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. Journal of Climate, 17, 3477–3495.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kosatsky, T. (2005). The 2003 European heat waves. EuroSurveillance, 10(2005), 148–149.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kovats, S. (Ed.). (2008). Health effects of climate change in the UK 2008: An update of the Department of Health report 2001/2002. Department of Health and Health Protection Agency.

  • Liu, Y. (2009). Exploring the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in China using ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and FDM (factor decomposition model). Energy, 34, 1846–1854.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu, J., Daily, G. C., Ehrlich, P., & Luck, G. W. (2003). Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity. Nature, 421, 530–533.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2001). The end of world population growth. Nature, 412, 543–545.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2007). IIASA’s 2007 probabilistic world population projections. IIASA World Population Program. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/proj07/index.html?sb=5. Accessed 20 Jan 2009.

  • Mackellar, F. L., Lutz, W., Prinz, C., & Goujon, A. (1995). Population, households and CO2 emission. Population and Development Review, 21, 849–865.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCarthy, J., Canziani, O., Leary, N., & White, K. (2001). Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    Google Scholar 

  • McGranahan, G., Balk, D., & Anderson, B. (2007). The rising tide: Assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and Urbanization, 19, 17–37.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McMichael, A. J., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Corvalan, C. F., Ebi, K. L., Githeko, A., Scheraga, J. D., et al. (2003). Climate change and human health—risk and responses. Geneva: World Health Organization.

    Google Scholar 

  • McMichael, A. J., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Kovats, S., Edwards, S., Wilkinson, P., Wilson, T., Nicholls, R. J., Hales, S., Tanser, F., Le Sueur, D., Schlesinge, M., & Andronova, N. (2004). Chapter 20: Global climate change. In M. Ezzati, A. Lopez, A. Rogers, & C. Mathers (Eds.), Comparative quantification of health risks: Global and regional burden of disease due to selected major risk factors (pp. 1543–1649). Geneva: WHO.

  • Meyerson, F. A. B. (1998). Population, development and global warming: Averting the tragedy of the climate commons. Population and Environment, 19, 443–463.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Military Advisory Board. (2007). National security and the threat of climate change. The CNA Corporation.

  • Nakicenovic, N., et al. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios: A special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  • Nakićenović, N., Fisher, B., Alfsen, K., Corfee Morlot, J., de la Chesnaye, F., Hourcade, J.-C., Jiang, K., Kainuma, M., La Rovere, E. L., Rana, A., Riahi, K., Richels, R., vanVuuren, D. P., & Warren, R. (2007). Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context. In B. Meta, O. Davidson, P. Bosch, R. Dave, & L. Meyer (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Mitigation of climate change. contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  • Nicholls, R. J. (2004). Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: Changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14, 69–86.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls, R. J., Wong, P. P., Burkett, V. R., Codignotto, J. O., Hay, J. E., McLean, R. F., Ragoonaden, S., & Woodroffe, C. D. (2007). Coastal systems and low lying areas. In M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, J. P. Linden, & C. E. Hanson (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation on vulnerability. contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  • O’Neill, B. C. (2009). Climate change and population growth. In L. Mazur (Ed.), A pivotal moment: Population, justice and the environmental challenge. New York: Island Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Neill, B. C., & Chen, B. S. (2002). Demographic determinants of household energy use in the United States. Population and Development Review, 28, 53–88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pachauri, S. (2004). An analysis of cross-sectional variation in total household energy requirements in India using micro survey data. Energy Policy, 32, 1732–1735.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pachauri, S., & Jiang, L. (2008). The household energy transition in India and China. Energy Policy, 36, 4022–4035.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palutikof, P. J., Subak, S., & Agnew, M. D. (Eds.). (1997). Economic impacts of the hot summer and unusually warm year of 1995. Norwich, UK: University of East Anglia.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parikh, J. K., & Painuly, J. P. (1994). Population, consumption patterns and climate change: A socioeconomic perspective from the South. Ambio, 23, 434–437.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parikh, J., & Shukla, V. (1995). Urbanization, energy use and greenhouse effects in economic development—results from a cross-national study of developing countries. Global Environmental Change, 5, 87–103.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., & Hanson, C. E. (Eds.). (2007). Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

  • Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., & Fischer, G. (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14, 53–67.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., & Livermore, M. (2005). Climate change, global food supply and risk of hunger. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 360, 2125–2138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pearce, F. (2005). Warming world blamed for more strong hurricanes. New Scientist.

  • Pielke, R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., & Musulin, R. (2008). Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900–2005. Natural Hazards Review, 9, 29–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pinstrup-Aderesen, P. (2002). Food and agricultural policy for a globalizing world: Preparing for the future. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 84, 1201–1214.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prskawetz, A., Jiang, L., & O’Neill, B. C. (2004). Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 1, 175–201.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reiter, P., Thomas, C., Atkinson, P., Hay, S., Randolph, D., Rogers, D., et al. (2004). Global warming and malaria: A call for accuracy. The Lancet Infectious Disease, 4, 323–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, D., & Randolph, S. (2000). The global spread of malaria in the future warmer world. Science, 289, 1763–1766.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosa, E. A., York, R., & Dietz, T. (2004). Tracking the anthropogenic drivers of ecological impacts. Ambio, 32, 509–512.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ross, J. (2004). Understanding the demographic dividend. Washington, DC: Futures Group, POLICY Project.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schar, C., & Jendritzky, G. (2004). Climate change: Hot news from summer 2003. Nature, 432, 559–560.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sedgh, G., Hussain, R., Bankole, A., & Singh, S. (2007). Women with an unmet need for contraception in developing countries and their reasons for not using a method. Occasional report no. 37. New York: Guttmacher Institute.

  • Shi, A. (2003). The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975–1996: Evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecological Economics, 44, 24–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simon, H., de Wet, N., Maindonald, J., & Woodward, A. (2002). Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: An empirical model. The Lancet, 360, 830–834.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh, S., Darroch, J. E., Vlassoff, M., & Nadeau, J. (2003). Adding it up: The benefits of investing in sexual and reproductive health care. Washington, DC: The Allan Guttmacher Institute and UNFPA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Speidel, J., & Grossman, R. (2007). Family planning and safe legal abortion are vital to safeguard the environment. Contraception, 76(2007), 415–417.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern, N. (2006). Stern review executive summary. New Economics Foundation.

  • Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2004). Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature, 432, 610–614.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNDP. (1999). Human development report. New York: United Nations Development Program.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNEP. (2007). Global outlook for ice & snow. Norway: Birkeland.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNFPA. (2008). ICPD programme of action. http://www.unfpa.org/icpd/docs/index.htm. Accessed 1/2/09.

  • UNPD. (2007). World population prospects: The 2006 Revision, highlights. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

    Google Scholar 

  • USAID Health Policy Initiatives. (2006). Achieving the millennium development goals: The contribution of fulfilling the unmet need for family planning. Washington, DC: Futures Group, Health Policy Initiatives. Written by Scott Moreland and Sandra Talbird.

  • US-EPA. (2008). Climate change-health and environmental effects (EPA, Ed.). Washington, DC: EPA. Sept. 5, 2008. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/health.html.

  • Van Diepen, A. (1994). Demografische ontwikkelingen en milieugebruik. In N. van Nimwegen & G. Beets (Eds.) Bevolkingsvraagstukken in Nederland Anno 1994: Demografisch Ontwikkelingen in Maatschappelijk Perspectief (pp. 357–374, Vol. 35). Den Haag: NIDI.

  • van Diepen, A. (2000). Household and their Spatial-Energetic Practices. Searching for Sustainable Urban forms. Groningen, Utrecht: FRW, RUG/KNAG.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vellinga, P., & Leatherman, S. P. (1989). Sea level rise, consequences and policies. Climatic Change, 15, 175–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vlassof, M. (2004). Assessing costs and benefits of sexual and reproductive health interventions. Occasional report no, 11. New York: Guttmacher Institute.

  • Worku, M. (2007). The missing links: Poverty, population and the environment in Ethiopia. FOCUS on Population, Environment and Security, 14, 1–8.

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank. (1999). World development report. Washington, DC: World Bank.

  • World Resources Institute, United Nations Environment Programme. (2000). Tomorrow’s markets, global trends, and their implications for business. Paris: UNEP.

  • Yamasaki, E., & Tominaga, N. (1997). Evolution of an aging society and effects on residential energy demand. Energy Policy, 25, 903–912.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • York, R. (2007). Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations, 1960–2025. Social Science Research, 24, 855–872.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • York, R., Rosa, E. A., & Dietz, T. (2003). Footprints on the earth: The environmental consequences of modernity. American Sociological Review, 68, 279–300.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng, Y., Land, K., Wang, Z., & Gu, D. (2006). US family household momentum and dynamics—extension of ProFamy method and application. Population Research and Policy Review, 25, 1–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng, Y., Wang, Z., Jiang, L., & Gu, D. (2008). Projection of family households and elderly living arrangement in the context of rapid population aging in China—a demographic window of opportunity until 2030 and serious challenges thereafter. Genus, LVIV(1–2), 9–36.

  • Zigova, K., Fuchs, R., Jiang, L., O’Neill, B. C., & Pachauri, S. (2009). Household survey data used in calibrating the Population-Environment-Technology model. IIASA Interim Report IR-09-026.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Tab Mesa Dr., Boulder, CO, 80305, USA

    Leiwen Jiang

  2. Population Action International, 1300 19th Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20036, USA

    Karen Hardee

Authors
  1. Leiwen Jiang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Karen Hardee
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Leiwen Jiang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Jiang, L., Hardee, K. How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?. Popul Res Policy Rev 30, 287–312 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-010-9189-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-010-9189-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation